][1]On Friday, we looked back at the food trend predictions which the 5pm Dining blog made a year ago. As ever, they were not wholly accurate but nor were they wildly wrong. Expect today’s post to mark a return to inaccurate form.
What will we see happening in Scotland’s restaurants and bars over the next twelve months? Today, we will set out the blog’s own predictions. Tomorrow, we’ll do a round-up of forecasts from some of the restaurant industry’s consultants.
Burger backlash?
The blog’s main forecast is that it won’t be a big surprise if there is the beginning of a backlash against gourmet burger joints and the closely related boom in craft ale bars. We’re not knocking them. The blog loves beer and has seldom said no to a burger but neither idea is as fresh and exciting as they seemed a year ago.
We’re not saying that it’s all over for burger and BBQ places. Edinburgh still has a long way to go on the gourmet burger front but Glasgow is beginning to look saturated. There was a time last year when each new burger/hot dog/pit pulled pork opening in Glasgow was marked by people desperate to be the first to tweet about it. How long before that wild enthusiasm for the latest opening is replaced by yawns?
Froth comes off craft?
Could something similar happen to craft beer bars? The big brewers are looking at falling sales of established beer brands in traditional bars versus booming sales of artisan beers in new, independent brew bars. They want a slice of the action. If large corporations begin to market new beers or bars as ‘craft’ then it could mean the sector rapidly loses its cool cachet.
Last year, Tennent’s and William Bros announced plans to team up and brew next to Tennent’s Wellpark complex. It will be fascinating to where that partnership leads.
][4]What will be the next big thing? I wish I knew. However, I’m hardly sticking my neck out in saying that eating out will continue to play an ever larger part in people’s everyday lives. Eating out is just another mainstream leisure option now and one which is becoming fashionable with younger consumers. Eating out was once for the middle aged, middle class – not anymore. It has been democratised.
Gastro-regeneration
You could draw parallels between tech start-ups and gastro-start-ups. In the same way that London’s East End has been regenerated by thrusting young tech firms, it could be argued that formerly sluggish neighbourhoods in the Central Belt are being transformed by new bars with ambitious chefs and hip interiors. Leith Waterfront was christened the Michelin Mile a long time ago but, over the last few months, new openings such as the Lioness of Leith on Duke Street, show that the changes are rippling out.
Eating out is entertainment now. Going to a new hot dog/brew bar is just like going to see the latest film or band. Talk of cooking being the new rock ‘n’ roll is overblown but it has its fair share of young-ish, mainstream role models such as Gizzi Erskine and, of course, at 38 the elder statesman of them all, Jamie.
Hissy fit
Last year, the blog had a minor hissy fit about Latitude festival having a Kitchen Stage. We may as well have been whining about the tide coming in. As variants on MasterChef; the Great British Menu, Bake Off and so on continue to come to light, then we’ll see more chefs, both amateurs and pros, move into previously uncharted waters, such as rock festivals or food festivals aimed at twentysomethings.
The Chilli Cook Offs which have been taking place in Glasgow and Edinburgh for the last couple of years are exactly the sort of event which is ripe for a more commercial slant.
So, a possible craft beer/burger backlash; more food-led urban regeneration and an acceleration in the trend of cooking as entertainment. I reckon they are all pretty solid bets.
The 5pm Dining blog will check back and, probably, chuckle at our cocksure attitude in a year.